The Delphi method

 

The Delphi method

The Delphi method is one of the commonly used group decision making methods in an organization. The Delphi technique is a research-based iterative cycle that gathers individual opinions, helps with identifying a consensus of expert opinion using a set of questionnaires. This method is also known as a qualitative forecasting method.

The Delphi method was introduced by Norman Dalkey in the 1950’s. This was a project sponsored, used by the military of the U.S.A.

The classical Delphi method was developed in order to allow participants express their ideas freely, to distil the perspectives of the members, to give participants a chance to explain, changing their view points with regards to the other members point of view, to quantitatively investigate on the gathered information.

The questionnaires for this method are designed to understand complications, discover opportunities, solutions, and for predicting the future of the organization. The questionnaires are repeatedly created in the consequence of the previous questionnaire feedbacks. 


This cycle is continuously developed until the purpose of implementing the Delphi method is obtained. While there are various decision-making methods an analyst should be able to understand whether implementing the Delphi method is the most productive way to attain maximum results. An analyst can succeed with the decision of implementing the Delphi method through a deep understanding of the advantages, and disadvantages of this method. 

The ability to use collective knowledge of the participants, the process being simple, flexible, easily understandable, the fact that a geologically scattered group of specialists can be brought together, the capability of including a large number of skilled participants, being able to freely, independently express ideas are a few advantages of the Delphi method. 

The process being time consuming, and costly, requiring fullest commitment, involvement of the participants, the requirement of writing skills to communicate through questionnaires are some of the limitations of the Delphi method.

Developing a research question, establishing a panel of experts, creating the questionnaires, making the participants answer the questions, checking whether the questionnaire should be improved, revising the questionnaires continuously until the consensus is achieved, and reporting the results to the higher officials are the basic steps of the Delphi cycle. The Delphi method can be gainful with working in the present complexed business environment, to understand the strengths, and weaknesses of the organization.

Example:

Discussions held between the top-level managers of the organization to discover the necessity of a policy change in the organization. A questionnaire should be created to find out whether a policy change is required, managers should be made to participate in the questionnaire, checking of the answers should be done, checking whether the questionnaire on the policy change should be revised, improving the questionnaire if needed, observing the answers of the revised questionnaire and making decisions on changing the existing policy of the organization.

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